The autumn upswing brought the number of unemployed in germany down to the lowest level in almost 25 years.
According to the federal employment agency (BA), 2.708 million people nationwide were out of work in september. That’s 88,000 fewer than in august and 100,000 fewer unemployed than a year ago. It was the lowest level since january 1991.
However, the boom is coming to an end: next year, for the first time since 2013, the agency expects unemployment figures to rise again – mainly due to the strong influx of refugees.
Head of the agency frank-jurgen weise said on wednesday: "with the autumn revival, unemployment fell in september. Seasonally adjusted, there was a slight increase, but overall the favorable development on the labor market has continued."
Weise attributes the good performance in september primarily to the stable economy. Many companies continue to search for suitable specialists. According to projections by the federal agency for july, 608,000 new jobs subject to social security contributions were created in german companies within the year – most of them in nursing homes and social institutions, in trade and repair companies and in business service providers such as tax and business consultants, advertising agencies and building administrations, but also in industry.
According to weise, the upswing in september was mainly due to seasonal factors. With the end of the summer break, companies started to hire more employees again. However, the usually very pronounced drop in unemployment at the beginning of fall was much weaker this time than in previous years. Weise attributed this, among other things, to the reduced supply of training and education for the unemployed. Jobseekers are not considered unemployed while participating in a so-called labor market policy measure.
For the coming year, however, the federal agency expects more difficult times for the labor market – especially because of the increasing number of unemployed refugees. Asylum seekers are already increasingly seeking advice and help at employment agencies and job centers, BA board member raimund becker reported. For 2016, the federal agency is expecting an average of around 130,000 additional unemployed refugees per year. In relation to all unemployed persons, unemployment will rise again next year for the first time since 2013 – by around 70,000 according to forecasts by labor market researchers.
Due to the continuing influx of refugees, the federal agency wants to massively increase the staff of employment agencies and job centers. The job centers alone should receive around 2,000 additional employees in the coming year, becker announced. The employment agencies are to be strengthened with 700 additional staff in addition to the 200 job placement officers already authorized. Becker assumes that around 90 percent of recognized refugees will initially be dependent on hartz IV benefits and will therefore be supported by the job centers.
At present, the relevant BA employees have been specifically trained to look after refugees. In addition to language courses, job recruiters also attended courses in which they were familiarized with the cultural background of refugees from the four to five most important countries of origin. In addition, the federal agency benefits from the internationality of its employees. "16 percent of BA employees have a migration background."
Becker admitted that the refugees represent "a huge challenge" for germany and the german labor market. At the same time, however, they also represent a "huge opportunity", not least because of the increasing ageing of german society. He warned, however, against being too impatient with their integration. 80 percent of refugees lack formal vocational qualifications. "They don’t come to us with a chamber of commerce title," becker said. Many nevertheless had talents and manual skills. These were to be tested during company internships. "The people who come to us are not the skilled workers of tomorrow, but the day after tomorrow," said the BA manager.
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